Ethiopia stands on the brink of a catastrophic civil war
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reformed Ethiopia and won a Nobel peace prize. But now he is facing a threatening challenge as he has ordered a military offensive against the opposition ruling party TPLF in the northern region of Tigray after accusing it of attacking federal troops. So, an “unanticipated civil war” on the region is intimidating the stability of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa.
Escalation comes after months of hostile disputing between Ethiopia’s federal government and leaders of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an armed group that turned into a political party that had led the revolt that overthrew the Derg, a Marxist command, in 1991. The TPLF was controlling the federal government of Ethiopia till 2018. But vast protests in 2018 among the Oromos people, who are about a third of Ethiopia’s populations, enforced Ethiopia’s governing coalition to appoint Abiy Ahmed as the prime minister. But after that, the TPLF felt gradually sidelined and they pull out last year from the coalition government.
The TPLF perceives Abiy as a threat to the constitution, which promises autonomy for each of Ethiopia’s ten ethnically based states and with the power to separate. Abiy Ahmed, by contrast, sights the TPLF as threats who are interrupting Ethiopia’s flimsy shift to democracy.
Earlier this year the federal government suspended the elections for the covid-19 pandemic but the TPLF accused the government of trying to extend their power. The dispute intensified when Tigray violated the federal government rule and hold its regional election last September. But it was declared illegal by prime minister Abiy’s government.
Recently, the federal government accused the TPLF of attacking the federal troops in the Tigray region though there were no definite evidences of such attack. Since then, the federal government has started actions to finish off the TPLF “once and for all”.
Prime minister Abiy Ahmed may be planning to finish off the TPLF from Tigray region with a massive military operation. But there are several facts about why this conflict will be far more dangerous than anyone could ever envisage in modern state history.
First of all, Tigray is the most powerful and largest military base of the Ethiopian federal army. And a large number of high-ranked officers there belong to the Tigray ethnicity. So, there’s a huge possibility of switching sides or rebellion when the federal government ordered a military offensive against Tigray. Additionally, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is by far the best armed and most influential of Ethiopia’s opposition military forces. The region’s militias are led by the experts of both the revolt against the Derg and of a massive war with Eritrea between 1998 and 2000. And as the constitution of Ethiopia allows the regional government to have its military forces, the Tigray government can recruit as many soldiers as needed.
Secondly, this could destabilize or broke down the whole of Ethiopia. While the Ethiopian government is mobilizing troops from the entire country to fight in the northern region against TPLF, other regions can easily revolt against the federal government in the absence of federal troops. Because the prime minister Abiy Ahmed has also waged a military operation against armed rebels in his region of Oromia which is also the country’s largest region. In recent incidents, dozens of Amhara ethnic women and children were killed by armed men.
Thirdly, though there was a peace deal signed between Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s ruler Isaias Afwerki, the former war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could gain new momentum. Because Tigray is the northern region of Ethiopia which shares a border with Eritrea and the dictator Isaias Afwerki has a long history of enmity with the TPLF. The reason behind enmity is vibrant as TPLF was the archenemy of Eritrea on the battlefield from 1998 to 2000. While experts are hearing echoes of 1998, Eritrea is mobilizing its forces for an offensive against its old enemy.
Finally, such a full-fledged war will not only destabilize whole Ethiopia but also the whole region of Horn of Africa which is already fragile and unstable. Ethiopia’s most unstable neighbor is Somalia, where Ethiopian forces are assisting the Somali government against the terrorist group “Al Shabab” but for the recent offensive against TPLF in the northern region of Tigray, Ethiopia is withdrawing its troops from Somalia. And another large neighbor Sudan, which is struggling with its massive political unrest. On the other hand, Ethiopia itself is already in a clash with Egypt over a massive dam on the Blue Nile which is still to negotiate.
With drastic consequences, Ethiopian leaders have led the country on the brink of a catastrophic civil war which can also tear up the whole country and shatter the entire region.
